The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the South Orange County housing market as we head into the summer months.

It's no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.

At the current sales pace, the nation's complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month's time. That's more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It's a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market "repaired in full", we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit's April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don't sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April's new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April's average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That's a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It's no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

 

 

Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They're at levels not seen in 50 years.  For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it's a second chance.

In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC's The Today Show, you'll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.

Some of the topics covered include:

• Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
• How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
• Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?

The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered.  There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won't stay that way.  If you've been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.

Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates.

As compared to March, April's Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide -- the second straight month of large gains. An "existing home" is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction).

It's a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market's recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April,  so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too.

Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them.

After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009's low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices.

Furthermore, because 49% of April's buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead.

It presents an interesting opportunity for June's home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year -- despite expert predictions to the contrary -- and homes remain affordable. Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher.

There's good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot.

If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe.

While the demand for mortgage loans to purchase a new home has declined following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, mortgage applications overall, increased last week as home owners looked to refinance. Mortgage rates have reached their lowest levels since March and many homeowners are looking to refinance their mortgage loans. While falling home prices have reduced the popularity of refinancing to tap into home equity, low mortgage rates have drawn the attention of borrowers looking to reduce their interest payments.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an increase in the number of applications for mortgage loans. The first week of May saw just under a 4 percent jump in applications from the previous week. With U.S. fixed rate mortgages hovering close to 5 percent, many homeowners jumped at the opportunity to refinance into lower mortgage rates. And with home prices starting to stabilize, the housing market is beginning to return to business as usual.

In the past few years homeowners have seen tremendous volatility in the housing market, including some of largest declines in home prices in recent memory. Falling home prices have wiped out an unprecedented amount of U.S. homeowner's equity, shaking up the mortgage business. With home prices showing more stability, borrowers and lenders can once again be confident that once a home is refinanced its value will most likely not fall below the mortgage balance. Some borrowers have even chosen to do cash-in refinances, putting more equity into their home to qualify for lower interest rates.

Mortgage Rates Remain Incredibly Low.

Despite the Federal Reserve ending it mortgage purchasing program, mortgage rates remain low. The Mortgage Banker Association reported that they were as low as 4.96 percent for the first week of May. While above the 4.76 percent they were this time last year, the sub 5 percent rates are still historically low. Many homeowners have been waiting for rates to once again dip down and as the trend of increased mortgage loan applications indicates they are swooping in to take advantage.

In some lower price ranges, because values have nudged up over the last year, some homeowners who couldn't refinance a year or two ago, now can - at historically low fixed rates! Look into it with your favorite loan person - I can recommend a couple of good ones.

DataQuick’s homebuying stats for April are out, and they show a real estate market still on the mend with sales of all residences of 2,669 — that’s up 11.60% in a year and the best April in 3 years. Median selling price was $430,000 — up 13.2% in a year. Also …

Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago Houses $505,000 +17.4% 1,704 +9.7% Condos $299,000 +16.6% 877 +18.7% New $629,500 +32.8% 88 -11.1% All O.C. $430,000 +13.2% 2,669 +11.6%

• $430,000 median selling price that is still 33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
• The most recent median is 16% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
• Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
• Single-family homes resell for 31% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 36% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 27% below their February ‘05 top.
• Single-family homes were 69% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 68% a year ago. From 1990-2008, the average house/condo gap was 57%.
• 2,669 residencessold in April vs. 1997-2006 monthly sales average of 4,304 per month.
• Builder’s new homes sales were 3% of all residences sold in the period vs. 4% a year ago. From 1990-2008, builders did 15% of the selling.

 

May 18th, 2010,  by Jon Lansner  of the Orange County Register

 

<!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Bob Phillips and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.-->

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called "the jobs report", Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it's good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates in California rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 -- nearly twice the expected amount -- and a 40 percent upward revision of March's numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report's import to Wall Street, it's less important to markets than what's happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are "safe", and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what's been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today's jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they're not. Consider taking advantage -- lock in a rate.

There is an interesting phenomenon going on, even while doom & gloom bloggers predict gigantic Tsunami’s of foreclosures heading our way. The following is excerpted from an article out of Texas this week.

“Every week, new home sellers are hitting the market, basing their initial asking prices on recent contracts, sales, and other active listings, and influencing active market prices.  And what does this have to do with foreclosures?  It provides a glimpse into housing market psychology.

Homeowner Henry down in Texas is underwater in his mortgage, or at a minimum, feels some personal economic strain.  He’s trying to determine if he’s in a walk-away situation or not, with his decision metrics at least partially based on his local housing market conditions.  As Henry starts to see active houses sell quickly, get multiple bids, and fetch a decent price, he starts to think – “Hey – maybe the market’s not so bad.  Things are starting to sell at a good price.  I’m going to hang on for another couple of months.  I don’t really want to move anyway, and if the market is improving, I can start to gain back some of that on-paper loss.”  Aggregating this behavior and market psychology yields fewer delinquencies and foreclosures in the short run.

Looking at delinquencies rates and housing market conditions in 2009, the peak in delinquencies were exactly correlated to the trough in home prices.  As the 2009 housing market strengthened and prices accelerated through the Spring, delinquencies fell simultaneously.

And speaking of Texas, Steve Brown of the Dallas Morning News published “Dallas-Fort Worth home foreclosure filings drop 12%” today in which he writes:  Home foreclosures have turned lower for next month’s forced sales.  The 4,861 Dallas-Fort Worth homes scheduled for foreclosure in May represent a 12 percent decline from year-earlier totals. And foreclosure filings are down 21 percent from the recent peak in March, Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service said Thursday.  His article also provides some local data points of foreclosure rates by county in the Dallas Metro area. 

Home foreclosures have turned lower for next month’s forced sales. The 4,861 Dallas-Fort Worth homes scheduled for foreclosure in May represent a 12 percent decline from year-earlier totals.  And foreclosure filings are down 21 percent from the recent peak in March, Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service said Thursday. 

Let’s take a look at active housing prices for these counties.  The two markets with the largest decline in foreclosure filings (a good thing) – Dallas and Tarrant County – have housing markets with median ask prices that hit an trough point in March (when foreclosure filings were higher) and are seeing an clear increase each week in the Prices of New Listings.” ( End of excerpt.)

This is a big reason why you shouldn’t be paying as much attention to dire warnings from doom & gloom bloggers, about huge waves of new foreclosures on the horizon.  As distressed homeowners – especially in the lowest price ranges - see their local markets improving, they are far more likely to hang in there, instead of giving up and going through a credit destroying foreclosure.

And because in some areas – such as my Orange County – the lower price ranges have actually increased in value by over 10% in the past 14 months, many who were considering a short sale can now actually have an equity sale, which has even stronger demand ( read higher prices.) from today’s throngs of willing buyers.  If you are a homeowner who thinks that you’re underwater, you just might have another think coming.

 

April 30th, 2010, · posted by Jeff Collins of the Orange County Register
 

A lot of last-minute homebuying decisions were made Friday as buyers rushed to qualify for a federal tax credit that expired that day.

Buyers needed to have a signed contracts in hand to get a credit of $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers. They also must close escrow by June 30.

“I think there’s definitely some last-minute scurrying around,” said Tustin agent Charles Folcke. “I’m sure that if some offers are accepted (this weekend), agents are going to backdate it.”

“Lots of quick decisions (were) made this week from our fabulous last-minute type of folks,” added Huntington Beach agent Vivian Young. “I’ve been showing property for lots of clients the entire month to quickly get them under contract before the month ends.”

Broker Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate reported that the number of deals signed increased 6.2 percent from two weeks ago and 10 percent over the past month.

“Buyers are pushing their way into escrow, but I think the momentum will carry even after the expiration,” Thomas said.

Coto de Caza agent Bob Phillips spent part of Friday dashing from Santa Ana to Capistrano Beach, then to a listing agent’s office to get a signed contract to an East Coast bank in time for its approval.

His clients got outbid Thursday, after offering $11,000 over the asking price on a bank-owned home. His cell phone rang at 6 a.m. Friday with news that the top bidder got cold feet and backed out.

He had to drive to both clients’ work places to get their signatures, then dash over to the listing agent’s office for the bank’s approval.

“I am now going to drive to Dana Point to open the escrow before they close at 5 p.m.,” he said Friday. “It has been an exciting day.”

Several agents noted that buyers stopped looking at homes listed as short sales, or selling below what’s owed the bank, since lenders typically are pokey in responding to offers.

Thomas and others predicted that the $200,000 set aside for the California tax credit likely will be exhausted in a month, rather than in the seven months allotted for it.

“There is still a lot of confusion about the California tax credit, which will last about a minute,” Thomas said. “The first 17,500 lucky first-time home buyers win and everybody else is going to be upset.”

Debate Rages Over the Supply of Foreclosed Homes

Why is there such a fierce debate about whether the housing market is slowly healing or heading for another free fall? Partly because no one can estimate with much confidence how many foreclosed homes banks need to sell or how fast they are getting rid of all that property.

A huge chunk of today’s housing supply comes from homes that have been acquired by banks or mortgage investors through foreclosure, plus those that are being offered by people who hope to avoid foreclosure by doing “short sales,” selling their homes for less than the mortgage balance due. The National Association of Realtors estimates that such “distressed” situations accounted for 35% of home sales in February and March.

The latest heroic attempt to tally how many foreclosed homes are available for sale comes from analysts at Barclays Capital in New York. They estimate that banks and mortgage investors including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned 480,000 homes at the end of February. That’s far lower than previous estimates. Barclays explains that it has acquired more data on mortgages and refined its methods for analyzing foreclosure trends. Under the bank’s previous methods, the estimate for February would have been more than 600,000.

Estimating the inventory of foreclosed homes is tricky because thousands of banks and others that own the properties disclose those holdings in varying ways, if at all. RealtyTrac Inc., another data provider and one of the few other firms that regularly makes such calculations, estimates that banks and mortgage investors own 758,000 foreclosed homes.

So we have a pretty big gap. Is it 480,000 as Barclays thinks, or 758,000, as per RealtyTrac? Tom Lawler, an independent housing economist who tracks reams of housing data when he isn’t tending the livestock on his farm near Leesburg, Va., figures the total is more than 550,000 but probably less than the RealtyTrac estimate.

“What is truly disturbing,” Mr. Lawler wrote in his daily housing-market commentary Wednesday, “is that given all of the economic data the government tracks, the sector it appears to track the worst is…the housing market!  Why is it that the government has not deployed more resources to better track and report data on the housing inventory, households, home sales, home prices, and, of course, foreclosures and the number of homeowners who have lost their home to foreclosure?”

(That’s an especially good question given that the U.S. government has a bit of exposure to the housing market. Inside Mortgage Finance reports that mortgages backed by government-related entities – Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA and the VA – accounted for more than 96% of home loans originated in the first quarter.)

Whatever the number of homes that banks, the federal agencies and private mortgage investors own now, it’s likely to increase. Barclays expects the inventory generally to rise over the next 20 months, peaking at 536,000 in January 2012, and then decline gradually.

To get a rough sense of how many more households will lose their homes to foreclosures or related actions, Barclays tallies what it calls a “shadow inventory,” consisting of homeowners 90 days or more overdue on mortgage payments or already in the foreclosure process. At the end of February, 4.6 million households were in that category.                                            

Barclays expects 1.6 million “distressed sales” of homes – mainly foreclosures or short sales – both this year and in 2011, then a slight decline to 1.5 million in 2012. Last year, Barclays estimates, such sales totaled 1.5 million. Around 30% of all home sales this year and next will be foreclosure-related, forecasts Robert Tayon, a mortgage analyst at Barclays, who says that would be only about 6% in a normal housing market.

Barclays expects U.S. home prices on average to fall another 3% to 5% over the next couple of years, adding to a decline of about 30% already recorded since 2006. That forecast assumes a gradual improvement in the unemployment rate to 8% within the next two years from 9.7% in March. The home-price picture would worsen if job growth sputters or banks “push homes through the foreclosure pipeline faster than expected,” Mr. Tayon says.

Efforts to avert foreclosures by offering many borrowers lower payments have slowed the flow of homes into bank ownership. In some parts of the country, such as the Las Vegas area and Orange County, Calif., that has left bargain-hunters frustrated by what they see as a shortage of bank-owned properties in attractive neighborhoods.

In the Las Vegas area, foreclosed homes accounted for 56% of sales in March, down from 73% a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick, a research firm.

This article appeared in the Wall Street Journal on April 28^th, 2010, written by James R. Hagerty

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/04/28/debate-rages-over-supply-of-foreclosed-homes/

 

 

Mortgage markets worsened last week in see-saw trading. By the time Friday's market closed, mortgage rates were higher across the board -- ARMs, fixed rates, FHA and conventional.

The biggest stories of last week were actually non-stories. 

First, the ash cloud from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano dissipated, allowing warehouses to move inventory, airlines to move people, and businesses to move product.  In addition, Greece moved closer to securing emergency funding that will help it stave off default.

When these two issues were threats earlier in the month, mortgage bonds rallied on safe haven buying, driving rates down. As the threats lessened over the course of last week, however, mortgage bonds sold off and mortgage rates rose.

By contrast, this week features lots of stories. Economic data will be at the forefront, as will the Federal Reserve which meets for one of its 8 scheduled meetings of the year.

• Monday : Greece is expected to announce an aid package
• Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index reports on home values from February
• Wednesday : Fed adjourns from its 2-day meeting
• Thursday : Initial Unemployment Claims are released
• Friday : GDP and consumer confidence numbers are released

Furthermore, Wall Street will have its eye on the Senate's questioning of key Goldman Sachs employees in the wake of the SEC's fraud charge.

In general, news that's "good" for the U.S. economy will be bad for mortgage rates, and vice verse.  And with mortgage rates changing as quickly as they have been, rates could really rise in a hurry.

The best defense against rising mortgage rates is to execute a rate lock. If you're nervous about rates moving higher, call your loan officer and execute your rate lock today.

More evidence surfaced today that home-loan defaults and foreclosures are receding from historic peaks seen a year ago. However, the pace of defaults and foreclosures remain high, especially in areas where lower-cost homes predominate.

MDA DataQuick reported that lenders filed 81,054 notices of default in California during the first quarter of 2010, down 4.2% from the previous quarter and down 40.2% from the first quarter of 2009.

DataQuick’s analysis shows that the greatest year-over-year declines occurred in areas with cheaper homes, with smaller declines occurred in pricier areas.

“We are seeing signs that the worst may be over in the hard-hit entry-level markets, while problems are slowly spreading to more expensive neighborhoods,” DataQuick President John Walsh said.

Notices of default are the first step in the process that can result in the sale of a home in a foreclosure auction.

California foreclosures also declined during the first quarter, DataQuick reported. Homeowners in the state lost 42,857 homes at foreclosure sales. That was down 16.1% from the previous quarter and down 1.7% from the first quarter of 2009. DataQuick’s report showed also:

 

 

 

Statewide, the default rate was 9.3 notices for every 1,000 homes. That compares to a default rate of 10.5 notices in ZIP codes with median home prices below $500,000 and 4.5 notices in ZIP codes with medians above $500,000.

• Defaults fell nearly 43% from a year earlier in ZIP codes with median home prices of $500,000 and below. But they fell just 19% in ZIP codes above the $500,000 median level.
• Southern California defaults fell 44.4% to 44,581 in the first quarter. They were down by nearly half in the Inland Empire.
• Orange County defaults decreased 37.5% to 5,270 in the first quarter, the smallest percentage drop in Southern California. Foreclosures fell 7.5% in the first quarter to 1,985.
• In the San Francisco Bay Area, defaults fell 30.5% to 13,517 in the first quarter.
• Home loans were least likely to go into default in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties. They were most likely to go into default in Merced, Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.
• California homeowners getting default notices were behind on house payments by a median rate of 5 months. The median amount left unpaid was $14,066.
• Default rates were below 10% for the state’s most active lenders during the housing boom — Countrywide, World Savings, Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. Those lenders, nonetheless originated the most loans that ended in default.
• Default rates for subprime lenders exceeded 65%.

There also were signs that lenders were being more accommodating in seeking alternatives to foreclosure, either by modifying loans or by allowing the home to be sold for less than was owed on the mortgage. For example, the foreclosure process averaged 7.5 months in the first quarter, compared to 6.8 months a year earlier, DataQuick reported.

April 20, 2010, by Jeff Collins, O. C. Register

 

 

Below is the latest Orange County Market Report from my friend Steven Thomas, the President of Altera Real Estate. Steven’s reports are cited and discussed in most of Southern California’s media, as an authoritative source of local real estate information. I have slightly altered his report to make it a bit easier to read, but the context and content remains true to Steven’s report.

“The Orange County Market Report – This Market is Taxing!

Talk to an Orange County buyer, especially a first time home buyer, and you will quickly find that the real estate market is simply crazy. 

Let’s first establish that there are two different markets - below $1 million, HOT, and above $1 million, COLD. The below $1 million market accounts for 77% of the total active inventory, and 94% of demand. The lower the range, the hotter the market.  Most buyers new to the market have already formed an incorrect idea of the real estate market. They think that the market is plagued with desperate sellers waiting for a buyer to finally write an offer to purchase at a major discount and an incredible “deal” for the buyer. Instead, new, fresh inventory is scarce and buyers find that they are competing for anything half way decent that hits the market. Properties that are priced well and in good condition, garner tremendous attention and procure multiple offers.

Writing a purchase offer at the list price only to lose to three other buyers that brought in offers above the list price is common. Sales prices above list prices are common. First time home buyers losing out on properties to investors with larger down payments is common. The reality is that if a buyer is looking to bargain and negotiate, they are better off attending the local weekend swap meet. Remember, values of homes have already dropped significantly, 35% or more. Some economists have argued that values have dropped below where they should be today, which is often the case in real estate downturns. So, homes are already heavily discounted from where they were a few years ago.

Home affordability has returned to the Orange County real estate market. Interest rates are still at historical lows. Throw in buyer income tax credits and we have all of the ingredients for a major seller’s market. Buyers entering the fray in today’s market get a real quick dose of reality and, if they really want to buy, sharpen their pencils real fast. In the lower ranges and in hotter areas, homes are starting to sell for more than the last comparable sale. The only thing that is keeping values from taking off like they did before is the distressed inventory.

Housing Demand: Demand has not seen these levels since the beginning of August 2005.
Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 126 homes over the prior two weeks and now totals 3,748, a 3% increase and the height thus far in 2010. Last year’s height in demand was reached in June at 3,652 pending sales. Demand is 195 pending sales stronger than last year at this time and 1,374 stronger than two years ago. It seems as if demand is beginning to hit a plateau, so we will have to watch and see if that trend continues over the coming weeks.

Developing Trends: The active listing inventory has continued to gradually increase after bottoming at the beginning of the year. Over the past two weeks, the inventory has increased by 266 homes to 9,177. We started the year at 7,165 listings and so, have added 2,012 homes to the active inventory thus far. Last year, the inventory continued to drop from mid-March to the New Year. Towards the end of last year, the drop was probably more in line with the cyclical drop in the inventory that starts in September until the end of the year.

Customarily, during the beginning of the year and into the Spring market, more and more homeowners place their homes on the market in anticipation of the strongest time of the year to sell. In the Spring market in 2006 and 2007, homeowners often tested the market and attempted to obtain values above the current fair market value. There were a ton of overpriced listings that remained on the market and which were not successful in selling - EVER.

Instead, they just clogged the inventory and it methodically grew, reaching a height in August 2007 of just shy of 18,000 listings. In 2008 and 2009, homeowners no longer tested the market and the discretionary ( “equity”.) seller disappeared. During the second half of 2009, the Orange County active listing inventory continued to shed homes and not as many new, fresh homes were placed on the market. REALTORS® in the trenches were complaining of a lack of inventory and nothing “fresh” to show their buyers.

We still hear that there is a lack of inventory, but behind the scenes, the active inventory is slowly but surely nudging upward, in every price range. It remains to be seen if the trend in an increase in the active inventory continues. Will the equity homeowner return or will more and more homeowners place their toe in the water, testing the market? We will have to wait and see. There are currently 1,384 fewer homes on the market today than just one year ago and 6,379 fewer than two years ago.

Expected Market Time: The lower the range, the lower the expected market time.
The expected market time for all of Orange County is currently at 2.45 months, a slight drop from 2.46 months two weeks ago. For homes priced below $500,000, the expected market time is 1.63 months, a deep seller’s market. For homes priced between $500,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 2.84 months, still a seller’s market. For homes priced above $1 million, the expected market time is 9.44 months, the higher the range, the slower the market. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time is 38.44 months, or over 3 years.

Distressed Inventory: Again, not much has changed in the distressed inventory.
The number of active distressed homes on the market,  short sales and foreclosures combined, decreased by 33 homes to 2,781 and represent 30.3% of the active inventory. Last year at this time, there were 4,006 distressed homes on the market, representing 37.9% of the active inventory.  The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory decreased by two homes in the past two weeks from 418 to 416. Yes, that is correct. With all of the talk of foreclosures there are only 416 on the market in all of Orange County. The expected market time for foreclosures is 1.01 months.

Short sales are a different story; there are plenty of short sales in Orange County. Short sales are where a homeowner attempts to sell a home for less than the total outstanding loans against the home, which requires the lender (or lenders in many cases) to approve the short sale, indicating their willingness to take less than the full payoff of a loan. Most short sales are not as  fast as their name would suggest, and, on average, take months to close. The number of short sales within the active listing inventory decreased by 31 and now total 2,365. The expected market time for short sales is 1.61 months, also a HOT seller’s market. Everybody’s looking for a deal, so foreclosures and short sales tend to fly off of the market.

The Most Absurd Tax Credit EVER? 

I am still scratching my head trying to understand why California approved $100 million towards a first time homebuyer tax credit. These are for transactions that close escrow on or after May 1, 2010. The $10,000 credit is spread out over three years. So, when will the $100 million run out? For every buyer, the state is counting $5,700 against the $100 million. That equates to 17,543 first time home buyers. Based upon the current wave of first time home buyer activity, the credit is forecasted to last less than two weeks. And, if there are buyers who are supposed to close at the end of this month – to take advantage of the $8000 Federal Tax Credit - and are looking to delay closing until after May 1st, the credit may end even sooner.”  ( End of Steven’s report.)

Like the former “Cash for Clunkers” program for automobiles, there will likely be a mad scramble for those credits – and a lot of disappointed buyers.

Each week, government-led Freddie Mac publishes a weekly mortgage rate survey based on data from 125 banks across the country.  According to this week's results, the relative rate of a 5-year ARM is extremely low versus its 30-year fixed-rate cousin.

Consider this comparison:

• In April 2009, the two products ran neck-and-neck with respect to rates
• In April 2010, the two products are split by 0.99 percent

On a $200,000 home loan, that's a difference of $117 per month to a mortgage payment.

Adjustable-rate mortgages aren't suitable for everyone, but they can be a terrific fit given your individual circumstance.  For example, any one of the following scenarios could warrant a 5-year ARM:

1. Buying a home with an intent to sell within 5 years
2. Currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage with plans to sell within 5 years
3. Interested in low payments and comfortable with longer-term interest rate and payment uncertainty

Additionally, homeowners with existing ARMs may want to refinance into a brand-new ARM, if only to extend the initial change date on the current note.

Before opting an ARM or a fixed, speak with your loan officer about how adjustable-rate mortgages work, and what longer-term risks may exist.  The savings may be tempting, but there's more to consider than just the payment.

 

Mortgage markets improved last week for the second week in a row.  And, also for the second week in a row, rates were down on "safe haven" buying -- just not for the same safe haven reasons as before.

If you'll remember, safe haven buying is when investors sense market risk, then move money toward less risky investments.

Well, because the U.S. government backs the bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, mortgage bonds tend to fit the "less risky" description and as Iceland's volcanoes shut down air traffic in Europe, mortgage bonds benefited.

That was early in the week.

Then, on Friday, when the SEC announced fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, a second wave of bond buying began as Wall Street fled the stock market. Mortgage rates fell a second time and the improvement carried through the market's weekly close.

Conforming and FHA rates are as low as they've been since March.

This week, there's not much data due until Thursday, but even Thursday's releases won't make a huge impact on rates.

1. Initial Jobless Claims : Important vis-a-vis broader employment figures. A strong number could push rates up.
2. Existing Home Sales : Housing remains a key part of the economy. Strong sales are expected because of the tax credit.
3. Producer Price Index : A "Cost of Living" index of business. A weak reading is expected because inflation is low.

Then, Friday, New Home Sales is released.

The bigger risk to home buyers this week than data is the reversal of the safe haven buying patterns that have kept mortgage rates down over the past 10 days.  Keep an eye on the markets and your loan officer on speed dial.  Markets can -- and do -- change quickly. 

You'll want to time your lock accordingly.

 

Foreclosure filings rose close to 20 percent nationwide last month versus February, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, and for the 13th straight month, total filings topped 300,000.

In addition, bank repossessions reached an all-time, quarterly record. Through the first three months of 2010, banks reclaimed more than 257,000 homes.

Nonetheless, 4 states dominated foreclosure activity nationwide.

California, Florida, Arizona and Georgia accounted for more than half of all bank repossessions. It's a disproportionate distribution of foreclosures. Together, the 4 states represent just 23 percent of the overall U.S. population.

The RealtyTrac report revealed some other interesting statistics, too.

• Foreclosure activity was up in 40 out of 50 states last month
• Bank repossessions rose 9 percent versus the same quarter last year
• For the 13th straight quarter, Nevada topped the state foreclosure rate

Regardless of where you're buying, short sales, foreclosures, and REO are making a profound impact on pricing and product. Distressed homes are 35 percent of the overall resale market.

There's excellent value in foreclosures out there if you know where to look, but keep these points in mind:

1. Buying short sales homes can take 120 days to close or more. Be flexible.
2. Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Some inventory is privately-held.
3. Bank-owned homes are frequently sold "as is". There may be defects that render the homes mortgage-ineligible.

The short sale/REO market is very different from the traditional "existing home" market.  Therefore, if you have an interest in buying such a property, be sure to talk with an experienced real estate agent first.  I have been selling properties like these for over 33 years, and would be honored to share my expertise with you.  Give me a call or shoot me an email - and let's talk about real estate!

Not all home improvements are created equal. Especially if you're looking for "resale value" back from your work.

An article from the Wall Street Journal lays it out cleanly. Function beats flash these days so be wary of where you spend.

Environmental upgrades such as home insulation and energy-efficient steel entry doors are recovering a much greater percentage of their cost these days than major remodels including kitchens or bathrooms.  This is especially true for homes that are already "over-improved" relative to the neighborhood.

Upgrading the biggest and best homes on the block can be a losing proposition.

The article's findings include data from groups such as the National Association of Home Builders, Remodeling Magazine, and Consumer Reports.  It lists the following home improvements among its top "paybacks":

• Steel entry door replacement : 129% cost recovery
• Wood deck addition : 81% cost recovery
• Vinyl-replacement window : 77% cost recovery

Energy-efficiency projects also recoup costs monthly in the form of lower heating and cooling bills.

Remodeling Magazine says a larger number of homeowners will remodel their homes in 2010 with less emphasis on upgrading kitchens and bathrooms, and more emphasis on adding new rooms.  From an appraisal perspective, this is a terrific way to increase your home's value -- especially if your home's bed/bath count lags your neighbors.

Before starting a home improvement project, regardless of whether your goal is increase resale value, talk with a real estate agent about other homes in the area and how they're built. At worst, you'll gather some ideas you can work into your plan. At best, you'll keep yourself from over-improving.

 

Mortgage markets improved last week to the delight of rate shoppers.

Against a sparse economic calendar, Wall Street turned its attention to geopolitics in Greece and the Eurozone.  It didn't like what it saw. Safe haven buying buoyed mortgage bond markets last week as pricing recaptured two-thirds of its monumental losses from the week prior.

Despite last week's surge, however, conforming and FHA mortgage rates remain near their worst levels of the year and appear poised to increase throughout the summer months.

The U.S. economy is improving. From last week:

• Pending Home Sales posted a strong monthly improvement
• Wholesale Trade data pointed to higher consumer spending ahead
• Inflationary threats on the economy are receding, according to the Fed

Furthermore, continuing jobless claims were down again.

Good news for the economy is generally bad news for mortgage rates. Last week, that wasn't the case because of Wall Street's want for "safe" assets right now.  This includes mortgage bonds and is helping to keep consumer rates low. When the safe haven buying eases, rates should climb.

Meanwhile, this week, the calendar is back-heavy. 

There's no real data until Wednesday's Consumer Price Index, and then there's a flurry of new releases through Friday's market close including Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Housing Starts. 

Strength in these issues should push mortgage rates back up.

If you're floating or shopping a loan right now, be wary of market volatility. Rates have been jumpy since April 1 and mortgage rates are changing quickly. This week, locking in before Wednesday may be your safest, near-term rate locking strategy.

 

As the federal home buyer tax credit nears its April 30 end-date, there's a lot of would-be home buyers still working to get under contract.

A piece of advice for all of them : If your pre-qualification and/or pre-approval letter is more than 8 weeks old, it would be prudent to have your lender "re-pre-approve" you.  Mortgage guidelines have been in flux and your original lender letter may now be invalid.

For example, over the past half-dozen months, the majority of mortgage lenders have reduced their risk tolerance with respect to:

• Maximum debt-to-income ratios
• Minimum allowable credit scores
• Calculation of "assets in reserve"

For buyers of condominiums and co-ops, even the subject property itself is coming under tougher scrutiny.

Today's mortgage applicants need to be a complete package. It takes more than just good income and credit to get approved anymore and today's buyers should revisit their qualifications. What passed underwriting in January may not pass in May.

Being pro-active brings other advantages, too. If a mortgage re-pre-approval does unearth an issue, it'll be easier for every party to the transaction to address and correct it up-front versus trying to clean up a mess once a home's already under contract.

Talk to your agent and your loan officer about your pre-qualification/pre-approval letter before you bid on a home.

Taxes are due April 15 and if you're among the millions of Americans who wait until the last week to file, below is a linked video interview that could help you reduce your federal tax liability. 

Originally broadcast by NBC's The Today Show, the 4-minute piece reviews various tax credits and deductions, plus some recent tax law changes.  A few of the topics covered include:

• Tax filers receiving larger "personal exemptions" in 2009 versus 2008
• Unemployment income recipients being required pay taxes beyond the first $2,400 received
• The "first time" home buyer credit being extended to non-first time home buyers for up to $6,500

The interview also talks about how taking a parent, child or other family member into your home may change your tax filing status and reduce your tax liability.

Even if you've filed your taxes already, watch the video above. You may find that you missed a potential deduction. If that's the case, consider filing an amended return with the IRS to recapture the credits you left on the table.  Most times, the benefits of re-filing will outweigh the costs of doing it.

Be sure to talk with your tax professional for personal tax advice.

 

Mortgage markets improved yesterday after the Federal Reserve released its March 16, 2010 meeting minutes. It's good news for home buyers and rate shoppers -- rates could have just as easily gone the other way.

The Fed Minutes is a detailed recap of the debate and discussion that shapes the nation's monetary policy. The notes are dense; it takes 3 weeks to compile them for publication.

As compared to the more well-known, post-meeting press release, the Fed Minutes are extremely lengthy. For example:

• March 16 press release : 451 words
• March 16 meeting minutes : 6,152 words

If the press release is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes are the novel.

The extra words matter.The minutes recount what the Fed did, how the Fed did it, and what the Fed plans to do next. And, in the minutes, Wall Street looks for clues. 

This is why the report is important to every rate shopper in the country.

When the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its meetings, it leave clues about the groups next policy-making steps.  For example, in March's Fed Minutes, it's clear that the Fed's concern about inflation is hugely diminished and that's a major plus for the mortgage bond market.

Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise. The absence of inflation, therefore, helps them to fall.  This improves home affordability, among other things.

Similarly, the Fed Minutes note that real estate sales may have been worse throughout the winter months if not for low mortgage rates and the sense among Americans that home prices were troughing. We may infer, therefore, that rising rates may suppress home sales later this year.

Markets are always looking for clues from inside the Fed and the last meeting's minute signal that the economy is on its way up.  If you're looking for a bargain in the housing market, your window to act may be closing.

 

As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit's April 30 deadline.

Versus the month prior, February's index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.

For today's home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April's Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.

If you're a home buyer today, no doubt you've noticed the extra market activity.

On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market.  It drives home supplies down and home prices up.

It's a good time to be a seller, in other words.  Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.

When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline.  There's no reason to expect that won't happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.

Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot.  Higher home sales figures are ahead.

 

Mortgage markets performed terribly last week as losses piled up day by day.  It marked the second straight week of sell-offs.

Pricing was influenced on several fronts including better-than-expected economic data, the end of the Federal Reserve's mortgage buyback program, and a short trading week.

Mortgage rates rose to their highest levels since late-December last week.

The data from the most anticipated story from last week -- the jobs report -- included a few good-for-the-economy surprises.

1. Although payrolls fell 22,000 short of expectations in March, they were boosted by +62,000 in net revisions from January and February
2. "Temporary Employment" -- a leading jobs indicator -- is up 313,000 in the last 6 months
3. The average work-week and factory overtime both rose in March -- a sign that hiring should increase soon

In general, what's good for the economy is bad for mortgage rates and that's one reason why rates spiked Friday. Employment is a keystone in the economic recovery and mortgage markets reacted accordingly.

This week is short on data but there's a lot to move the markets.

For one, the Federal Reserve has called an emergency meeting to review its Discount Rate policy.  The meeting is called for today, Monday April 5, at 11:30 AM ET.  It's unknown exactly what the meeting will cover, but if new monetary policy is made, expect that mortgage rates will be influenced.

Also worth watching this week are the technical trading patterns present in the mortgage-backed bond market.

Unlike fundamental trading in which markets move on data and projections, technical trading is how markets move based on patterns over time. The two methods co-exist on Wall Street but, occasionally, technical forces can be pronounced, leading markets to lurch up or down.  This week may be one of those times. 

Mortgage pricing is far below its 200-day moving average, resting slightly north of a key support level. If pricing worsens this week and bonds fall below the support level, mortgage rates could easily tack on quarter-percents or more per day until the market refinds its balance.

Overall, it's a week you don't want your rate to be floating. Sure, rates could improve, but there's a lot more room for them to worsen.

 

In its 12-month home price forecast issued Wednesday, Veros Real Estate Solutions said it had “continued bad news for Florida.” Markets in the Sunshine State claimed the top five spots on the collateral valuation company’s list of areas where prices are expected to drop the most over the next year.

The Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach market has the farthest to fall when it comes to price depreciation. There, Veros projects prices will plunge another 10 percent between now and March 2011.

In Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, the forecast is a decline of 8.9 percent. Naples-Marco Island will likely see prices drop another 8.8 percent, Veros says. The company expects Orlando-Kissimmee to suffer price depreciations of 8.7 percent over the next year. And Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce is projected to see a decline of 8.6 percent.

Eric Fox, Veros’ VP of statistical and economic modeling, said, “Florida remains ground zero for the weakest home price forecasts in the U.S. although extreme declines of 20 or 25 percent are no longer expected since strong price corrections have already occurred.”

One of the other big bust states – California – shows more promise, according to Veros’ analysis. The Golden State is home to three of the five markets the company expects to post the strongest price gains over the next 12 months.

Veros projects home prices in the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos market to increase by 3.4 percent between now and March 2011. In Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, the company forecasts a rise of 3.1 percent, and San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont is expected to see price gains of 3.0 percent.

“More of California’s coastal areas are showing modest signs of appreciation,” Fox said, noting that Los Angeles and San Francisco were not among the top five for price gains in the company’s study last quarter, but have edged their way up the ranks over the past three months.

Two Texas metro areas also made the “strongest markets” list, with prices in Houston-Sugarland-Baytown expected to see gains of 3.0 percent over the next year, and prices in Amarillo forecast to increase 2.7 percent.

“The Great Plains region including Texas remains steady,” Fox said.

Addressing the overall picture, Fox added, “Although there are no overwhelmingly strong appreciating forecasts among the larger metropolitan areas, the depreciating forecasts are noticeably milder than a year ago.”

Veros says it anticipates “gradual improvement” of property value trends in key markets over the next 12 months.

The company’s predictions are based on its analysis of more than 900 counties, nearly 300 metro areas, and almost 14,000 zip codes, encompassing such critical factors as interest, unemployment, and inflation rates; housing inventory levels; and economic and geographic trends.

From DSNews.com,  April 1, 2010,  by Carrie Bay

Note from Bob Phillips: Meanwhile, in Orange County, California, the median price has climbed by more than 10% over the past 14 months. With currently low inventory of available houses, continued historically low interest rates, an $8,000 Federal tax credit still available, AND a new $10,000 California tax credit, there is NO reason to expect that 2010 won’t be just like 2009.  This is probably the most affordable houses in Orange County, California have been in the past decade.

 

HOPE NOW announced Wednesday that its members completed an estimated 95,586 proprietary loan modifications in February 2010, which is almost double the 52,905 modifications completed under the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) during the same month.

Of the proprietary loan modifications completed in February, approximately 78 percent included a reduction of principal and interest payments. HOPE NOW’s data also showed that foreclosure starts and sales dropped 17 percent for the month, along with a 4 percent decrease in the number of 60-plus day delinquencies.

“Our data shows that mortgage servicers are continuing a strong effort on proprietary and HAMP modifications in the first two months of 2010,” said Faith Schwartz, executive director of HOPE NOW, the private sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, mortgage insurers and nonprofit counselors

However, with almost 4 million loans currently in default, Schwartz said HOPE NOW realizes that its work is not yet done. She said mortgage servicers and housing counselors have worked extremely hard through aggressive borrower outreach, and HOPE NOW remains determined to keep as many families as possible in their homes.

Meanwhile, doom & gloom bloggers continue to dismiss these significant facts, continuing to promote their fabrications that the Administration’s programs are a dismal failure – an absolute distortion of the reality that things are steadily getting better.

There's just 30 days remaining to use the federal home buyer tax credit.

The credit ranges up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers, and up to $6,500 for existing homeworkers who have lived in their main home for 5 of the last 8 years.

Claiming the federal tax credit is a two-step process. First, you must be under contract for a new home on or before April 30, 2010.  Then, you must close on said home on or before June 30, 2010. 

There are no exceptions on the dates.

Timeline aside, homebuyers and the subject property must also meet minimum requirements in order to be tax credit-eligible:

• You can't purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
• You can't purchase the home from an entity in which the seller is a majority owner
• You can't acquire the home by gift or inheritance
• Each buyer in the purchase must meet eligibility requirements
• The home sale price may not exceed $800,000
• Buyers may not earn more than $125,000 as single-filers; $225,000 as joint-filers

The complete eligibility checklist is published on the IRS website.  Or, if you find IRS-speak too difficult, make a phone call to your accountant.  Asking a tax professional's advice on a tax-related matter is never a time-waster.

And lastly, don't forget that if you're claiming to federal tax credit for home buyers, it's a tax credit and not a deduction.  This means that a tax filer who qualifies for the full $8,000 and for whom the "normal" federal tax liability is $8,000, will owe no federal taxes in 2010 to the IRS.

If you're an active buyer , mark your calendar for April 30, 2010. It's 30 days from now and, as the date gets closer, buyer traffic will increase. The likely result is higher home prices and more difficult negotiations.  The best time to act may be today.

Of course here in California we have an even better reason to act soon, as the Governor recently signed a bill giving the state's homebuyers up to an additional $10,000 tax credit. For escrows that close between May 1st and June 30th, buyers MAY be eligible for up to $18,000 in total credits between the Federal and State's programs. That is a BIG incentive to get off the fence!

A surprisingly strong rebound in California's real estate market helped lift a key home price index for the eighth month in a row.

That's good news for people who plan to sell their homes this spring. Prices are now up almost 4 percent from the bottom in May 2009, but still almost 30 percent below the May 2006 peak.

Prices rose 0.3 percent from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday. Prices increased in 12 cities in the index.

The biggest monthly gain was in Los Angeles, where prices rose 1.8 percent from December. And real estate agents say there's a distinct sense the worst of the downturn is over.

Buyers are "seeing that prices are creeping up," said Tony Middleton, a real estate agent with ZIP Realty who concentrates on the San Fernando Valley. "They're losing bids on homes and they have to bid again."

Prices in San Diego, meanwhile, rose by almost 0.9 percent. Phoenix had the third-largest gain at 0.8 percent.

Compared with the same month last year, the 20-city index was off just 0.7 percent from last year at a reading of 146.32. That was the smallest decline in almost three years and in line with analysts' expectations, according to Thomson Reuters.

Rising home prices also could boost consumer optimism. For most Americans, their home is their largest asset, so as values climb from the depths of the housing bust, homeowners feel wealthier and more comfortable spending. And, for homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, rising prices rebuild equity.

Consumer confidence rebounded in March after a February plunge, according to a survey released Tuesday. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 52.5 in March, recovering about half of the nearly 11 points it lost in February.

Still, shoppers remain cautious and there are signs that last year's housing rebound won't last. Home sales sank during the winter, and government incentives that have propped up the market are ending.

Another reason for the positive news is simply that the Case-Shiller index measures a three-month average of home prices. So January's report included November's strong home sales.

However, bargain-hunting homebuyers continue to pack open houses in California, often facing off with investors for foreclosed homes.

"We're seeing multiple offers in most of the markets here in the San Francisco Bay area," said David Kerr, an agent with ZipRealty in Oakland, Calif. "People are getting off the fence."

In February, bank-owned properties made up 44 percent of all resales in the state, according to MDA DataQuick. In Southern California, they accounted for more than half of resales.

With such high demand, supply is dwindling, driving prices higher.

Meanwhile, the state's unemployment rate has flat-lined of late, and that's made buyers more comfortable about purchasing a home than they were just six months ago, said Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California.

California home sales will likely get a boost in coming months thanks to a new serving of government stimulus.

Last week, state lawmakers enacted a tax credit of up to $10,000 for homebuyers that kicks in May 1. The state allotted $100 million for first-time buyers and another $100 million to anyone who buys a newly built home. California had a round of tax credits last year that proved to be popular; that program ended in July.

The latest incentive picks up where a federal first-time homebuyer tax credit of up to $8,000 is scheduled to leave off when it expires at the end of April. Should the Obama administration extend the federal tax break, that could give homebuyers in California even more reasons to buy.

Still, there remain pockets of weakness. Sales of homes priced above $500,000 are sluggish. And despite rising prices, more than one-third of all homeowners with a mortgage still owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, according to First American CoreLogic.

Among the cities showing monthly price declines in January, the biggest drop was in Portland, Ore., where prices fell 1.8 percent from December. Chicago and Seattle saw declines of 1.7 percent, while prices in Atlanta fell 1.5 percent.

LOS ANGELES — Courtesy of Huffingtonpost.com, 3-30-2010 - ALAN ZIBEL AND ALEX VEIGA

 

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Wednesday. The report shows that, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, between December and January, home prices rose in more than half of the index's tracked markets.

The strength of this month's Case-Shiller report, however, should be put in context.

For one, the report is on a 2-month delay; it's showing data from January, before the start of the Spring Buying Season and before the rush to beat the tax credit. Anecdotally, buyer interest has been strong since, leading to the types of multiple offer situations that drive home prices northward.

In other words, home values may be even higher than what's reflected in the January Case-Shiller data above.

Furthermore, the Case-Shiller Index measures home values in just 20 cities nationwide and they're not even the 20 biggest cities. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are specifically excluded from the report and each ranks among the country's 10 most populous areas.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains important. Much like the government's Home Price Index, the private-sector report helps to finger broad housing trends and housing is still considered a keystone in the U.S. economic recovery.

Even if it IS two months slow.

I'll have the Orange County version of this report in a few minutes.....please stay tuned.

 

Economists at IHS Global Insight and PNC Financial conclude that Orange County homes were priced 5.6% too low in 2009’s fourth quarter.

Comparing local house-sale prices to historical real estate and economic trends, IHS-PNC estimates that Orange County homes were undervalued for the 7th consecutive quarter after being overvalued for the previous 20 quarters.

The latest 5.6% undervaluation — on par with the likes of Louisville, Ky.; Jefferson City, Mo.; Fairbanks and Abeline, Texas — was a roughly equal to the previous 5.5% in Q3. The current wave of Orange County undervaluation peaked at 11.4% in Q4 of 2008.

Also  in the IHS report …

• For historical memory sake, Orange County overvaluation peaked at 33% in 2006’s Q2.
• Atlantic City, N.J., was the most overvalued nationally (33% too high) in Q4 2009.
• One reason the undervaluation is shrinking locally is the rising price of homes sold. By IHS-PNC math, O.C. home pricing was up 6.4% in a year as 2009 ended — 3rd biggest gain among the 330 regions tracked nationwide.
• The D.C. region had the largest Q4 price gain (+10.5%) while Las Vegas had the biggest loss (-19.4%).
• The report concludes: “Two years of relentless house price depreciation finally ended in the summer of 2009. The second half of 2009 saw minimal changes in home prices, signaling stabilization at long last, if not yet recovery. … We ended 2009 with no extremely overvalued metros, a sharp contrast to 2005 when 52 metro areas were judged to be extremely overvalued.”

March 22nd, 2010, originally posted by Jon Lansner in the O.C. Register

 

The Administration's Making Home Affordable Program has put a couple of great tools on their website that can help answer your questions about a possible Loan Modification. ( Part of HAMP - the Home Affordable Modification Program.)

There is an Evaluator Tool and a Questionnaire.

If you can no longer afford to make your monthly loan payments, you may qualify for a loan modification to make your monthly mortgage payment more affordable. Millions of borrowers who are current, but having difficulty making their payments and borrowers who have already missed one or more payments may be eligible.  To see if you may be Eligible fill out a brief questionnaire.  For the evaluator tool go here.

If you are having difficulty - you are not alone - check out some of these resources, for some solutions - and good luck!

 

There is an interesting wrinkle with the new bill just signed by Governor Schwarzenegger, regarding tax credits for California home buyers - state bill AB 183.

Here is some language from that bill: "Requires buyers to close escrow between May 1 and Dec. 31 to qualify." ( For an up to $10,000. tax credit.)

The interesting part of that is this: The Federal first time homebuyer tax credit of up to $8000. clearly states that "The credit is available for homes purchased after November 6, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010. However, in cases where a binding sales contract is signed by April 30, 2010, the home purchase qualifies provided it is completed by June 30, 2010." ( From the Government's Making Home Affordable website: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/glance.php )

So, if I read that correctly - and remember, I am NOT a qualified tax preparer, or attorney - that seems to suggest that if you are IN escrow before May 1st, 2010, and close escrow prior to July 1st, 2010, you might qualify to receive BOTH tax credits.

If you happen to be one of those fortunate California home buyers, and you seem to qualify, you should definitely look into this potential windfall.

 For the 22 business days ending March 8 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

For the 22 business days ending March 8 Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago Houses $500,000 +13.6% 1,559 -4.1% Condos $288,750 +11.5% 812 +15.7% New $523,500 +6.5% 101 +26.3% All O.C. $420,000 +10.5% 2,472 +2.7%

• $420,000 median selling price that is +10.5% vs. a year ago and -35% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
• The most recent median is 14% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
• Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
• Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 39% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 39% below their February ‘05 top.
• Single-family homes were 73% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 70% a year ago. From 1990-2008, the average house/condo gap was 57%.
• In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 2,472 residences — that is +2.7% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
• Builder’s new homes sales were 4% of all residences sold in the period vs. 3% a year ago. From 1990-2008, builders did 15% of the selling.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

March 26th, 2010 · from Jon Lansner, of the O.C. Register

 

Home values fell again in January, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index. Values were reported down 0.6 percent, on average.

We say "on average" because the Home Price Index is a national report. It doesn't capture the essence of a local market , or even a city market.

The most granular that the monthly Home Price Index gets is regional and January's report shows that:

• Values in the Mountain states rose 2.0%
• Values in the Pacific states were flat
• Values in the East North Central states fell 1.8%

It's hardly helpful for home buyers entering the market, or home sellers trying to properly price a home.  Furthermore, because the Home Price Index reports on a 2-month delay, its data fails to reflect the current market conditions.

Versus January -- the period from which HPI data is collected -- mortgage rates are lower, buyer activity is up, and the federal home buyer tax credit is closer to expiring.  These each can have an impact on housing.

Ultimately, national real estate data like the Home Price Index is best suited for lenders and policy-makers.  National data helps to identify trends that shape formal policy, but it doesn't help you, specifically. 

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.2 percent.

Gov. Schwarzenegger  signs new homebuyer tax credit

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed a new bill providing up to $10,000 in tax credits for both new-home buyers and for first-time buyers of existing homes.

An earlier round of state tax credits offered last year, were for new-home purchases only. That program was so popular that homebuyers depleted the full $100 million eight months before the deadline.

Under the latest plan, the state doubled the amount of credits to $200 million.

Standing before a Fresno housing project, Schwarzenegger said the tax credits will help meet his administration’s goal of creating “jobs, jobs, jobs.” He added:

“We are the eighth largest economy in the world. It would be absolutely insane for us to sit back and wait for the economy to come back.”

The state tax credit will become effective May 1, shortly after a federal tax credit expires.

Some readers criticized the proposal when Schwarzenegger unveiled it in January for artificially propping up home prices, already unaffordable for many families. But building industry officials maintain the tax credit is needed to boost home construction and the state economy.

John Young, chairman of the California Building Industry Association, said during the news conference that the tax credit “will get buyers off the fence, and into our models and buying homes, and that will put people back to work.”

Orange County BIA CEO Kristine Thalman issued a statement saying:

“The reality is new construction creates jobs – up to three new jobs for every single home built. Renewing the homebuyer tax credit is a critical step in creating jobs and generating positive economic activity for the state.”

Assemblywoman Anna Caballero, D-Salinas, the bill’s co-author, also spoke at the governor’s news conference, saying that an added benefit will be to get families living in vacant homes that create blight in neighborhoods. She added:

“We recognized that it was really important to get the current inventory of homes sold so we can get them back on the tax rolls and get families in them.”

The final version of the bill differs from the provisions initially outlined in January by the governor’s staff. The governor’s staff believed at first that Schwarzenegger initially wanted to limit the credits to first-time buyers only.

Under the provisions, the bill:

• Provides a 5% tax credit, up to a $10,000 limit, to all buyers of new, never-occupied homes.
• Provides a 5% tax credit, up to a $10,000 limit, to first-time buyers of existing homes.
• Sets aside $100 million for each program, for a total of $200 million.
• Requires buyers to close escrow between May 1 and Dec. 31 to qualify. New-home buyers have until Dec. 31 to sign a purchase contract, then must close escrow by Aug. 16, 2011.
• Requires buyers to live in the home for at least two years.
• Provides for the tax credit to be paid in thirds over a three-year period.
• Sets no income limitations on buyers.
• Requires buyers to repay the tax if they fail to live in the home for two years or fail to close escrow on a new home by Aug. 16, 2011.

March 25th, 2010 · by Jeff Collins, The Orange County Register

April 15 is Tax Day and the IRS estimates that the average U.S. household will receive a $2,800 tax refund this year.  If you're among the Americans expecting a refund,

this 4-minute piece

from NBC's The Today Show may be helpful. It's a talk about how to receive a refund and what to do with it.

Some of the key points discussed in the above linked video include:

1. Why state-issued tax refunds may be delayed this year
2. How wage-earning people can claim their "Making Work Pay" tax credit of up to $800
3. How to direct a tax refund to a 529 college savings plan for an even bigger tax refund

There's also some sensible pointers on using tax refunds to pay down credit card debt, and to fund retirement plans, among other purposes.

If you haven't started your tax planning yet, try to avoid leaving it for the last weekend.  Not only will your tax preparer have more time for you now, but you'll leave yourself more time to track down important statements and receipts that can boost your federal and state tax deductions.

Taxes are due in 21 days.

 

O.C. housing more affordable than you think

Although Orange County’s housing is less affordable than the Inland Empire’s, the gap isn’t as great when you take transportation costs into account, a new study released Wednesday shows.

The study, by the Chicago-based Center for Neighborhood Technology, says that the “drive until you qualify” mentality doesn’t taken into account the added transportation costs of living in far-flung areas, where commutes are longer.

For example:

• Based on housing costs alone, 59% of O.C. neighborhoods are affordable. But when transportation costs are taken into account, just 48% of local neighborhoods are affordable — a 21% difference.
• In the Inland Empire counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, the gap is much bigger. There, 62% of the neighborhoods are affordable based on housing costs alone. But when transportation costs are included, just 22% are — a 40% difference.
• Nationwide, 69% of neighborhoods in 337 U.S. metro areas are considered affordable based on housing costs. This shrinks to 39% when housing and transportation costs are combined — a 30% difference.

According to the report’s authors, housing affordability in the United States is being drastically overestimated.

“There are a lot of things (to consider) besides the posted price of a house,” said Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood Technology president. “It makes no sense to advertise the cost of a home without taking into account the cost of transportation.”
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housing & transportation (H&T)

Category

#Neigh’s

#Affordable

Pct.

O.C. Housing

1,823

1,074

58.9%

O.C. H&T

1,823

868

47.6%

I.E. Housing

1,886

1,166

61.8%

I.E. H&T

1,886

411

21.8%

Under the traditional method of calculating affordability, an area is considered affordable if the average housing costs are 30% or less of the area’s median household income. In the center’s study, an area is considered affordable if the cost of housing and transportation combined are 45% of an area’s median income.

Both Orange County and the Inland Empire have 1,800 to 1,900 census block groups, or neighborhoods measured by the U.S. Census. Both have a similar number of households — just over 930,000 in Orange County and just over a million in the Inland Empire.

But O.C.’s transportation costs are lower:

• The average commute to work is 27 minutes in Orange County, compared to 31 minutes in the Inland Empire.
• Orange County residents drive an average of just under 16,000 miles a year, while Inland Empire residents drive an average of nearly 20,000 miles per year.
• Orange County households spend an average of $3,611 on gasoline each year, compared to yearly average of $4,445 in the Inland Empire.
• In Orange County, gasoline costs consume an average of 21.3% of a household’s income, compared to 31.2% in the Inland Empire.

There is one other key difference, however. Since the median income used in the study for Orange County ($58,820 a year) is much higher than the median for the Inland Empire ($42,404 a year), an Inland Empire home must be much cheaper to be considered affordable.

In other words, housing and transportation must cost $2,206 a month or less in O.C. to be affordable. To be affordable in the Inland Empire, housing and transportation must cost $1,590 a month or less.

For more on the study, and results by metro area, visit htaindex.org.

This article was published today in the Orange County Register, written by Jeff Collins.

 

 

The California legislature on Monday passed AB 183, providing $200 million for home buyer tax credits. The Governor is expected to sign the bill into law this week. C.A.R. supported this important legislation since its inception.  Part of a package of four bills passed at the request of the Governor, AB 183 is designed to help stimulate the economy and create jobs.  It allocates $100 million for qualified first-time home buyers who purchase existing homes and $100 million for purchasers of new, or previously unoccupied, homes.

 The eligible taxpayer who closes escrow on a qualified principal residence between May 1, 2010 and December, 31, 2010, or who closes escrow on a qualified principal residence on and after December 31, 2010 and before August 1, 2011, pursuant to an enforceable contract executed on or before December 31, 2010, will be able to take the allowed tax credit.

 This credit is equal to the lesser of 5 percent of the purchase price or $10,000, taken in equal installments over three consecutive years. Under AB 183 purchasers will be required to live in the home as their principal residence for at least two years or forfeit the credit (i.e. repay it to the state).

 $10,000 represents 5% of a $200,000 purchase price, so that means just about any property purchased in Orange County. Like the “Cash for clunkers” program, however, the $200 million will probably get used up pretty fast.

 

 

Orange County Market Report – Demand Springs Forward.

Here is the latest market report from my friend Steven Thomas, of Altera Real Estate:

Orange County is taking “Spring Forward” to a whole new level with an increase in demand for the first time in six weeks.

Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 216 homes over the prior two weeks and now totals 3,270, the highest level thus far in 2010. Demand is 600 pending sales stronger than last year at this time and 1,187 stronger than two years ago. After looking at developing trends, I had been wondering whether or not demand was going to surge or if it would ignore cyclical market fundamentals. It would not have been the first time that this downturn ignored the conventional Southern California housing cycle.

Call it a coincidence, but now that the cool temperatures, clouds and rain have subsided, the Orange County housing market is revving its engine. There are a ton of buyers in the marketplace right now according to REALTORS® in the trenches.

The current problem is surprisingly a LACK OF INVENTORY. The expected market time for all homes priced below $1 million is 2.23 months, a deep seller’s market with a very low inventory. These homes represent 78% of the active inventory and 94% of demand. But, for homes priced above $1 million, there is NOT a lack of inventory. Collectively, this range represents 22% of the active inventory but only 6% of demand. The expected market time is 8.99 months, a buyer’s market.

The inventory has dropped significantly in every range. With the exception of homes priced below $250,000, demand is much stronger in every range. There just are not enough homes on the market in the lower ranges where demand is so incredibly hot. For the lowest range, less than $250,000, the inventory is down 43%, but demand is only off by 10%. It is no wonder that there are multiple offers and homes selling for above their asking prices in the lower ranges. More inventory would actually be welcomed with open arms by both buyers and their REALTORS®.

The “jumbo” market between $750,000 and $4 million has actually improved tremendously. Their expected market time has dropped significantly as well. For example, homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million dropped from an expected market time last year of 16.21 months to 6.55 months today. 6.55 months may be a buyer’s market, but it is not frozen. Anytime the expected market time is above 10 months, double digits, there is just too much inventory and very little demand.

Currently, only homes above $2 million have expected market times that are double digits. They represent 10% of the current active inventory, but only 2% of demand. The current market is much different than just one year ago. Just ask all of the buyers who are having trouble purchasing because of a lack in inventory.

How do the rest of the numbers look? The active inventory increased over the past two weeks by 330 homes, or 4%, to 8,776. The active inventory last year was at 11,606, 2,830 additional homes compared to today. Two years ago it was at 15,617, 6,841 additional homes. The overall expected market time for all of Orange County dropped from 2.77 two weeks ago to 2.68 months today. The total pending count, which includes homes that have been pending for months, increased from 6,869 two weeks ago to 7,049 today. That is the highest level since I started tracking total pending sales back in September of 2006.

This is primarily due to the mind-boggling number of short sales that are waiting for lender approval (short sales are homes where the outstanding loans exceed the market value of the home and are subject to the lender[s] agreeing to take less in order to close the sale). 4,250 of the 7,049 total pending sales are short sales, 60%. Yet, only 40% of current demand is made up of short sales. On average, short sales just do not close as fast. Instead, they clog the system and buyers are left on the edge of their seats wondering when they will ever be able to move into their new home.

The number of active distressed homes on the market, all short sales and foreclosures combined, increased by 26 homes to 2,795 and now represent 31.8% of the inventory. Last year at this time, there were 4,673 distressed homes on the market, representing 40.3% of the active inventory.

The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory dropped by two homes in the past two weeks, from 396 to 394. The expected market time for foreclosures is an astonishing 1.05 months, a deep seller’s market. Foreclosures are flying off of the market. The number of short sales within the active listing inventory increased by 28, and now total 2,401. The expected market time for short sales is 1.86 months, also a deep seller’s market.

With the return of Southern California sunshine and temperatures in the 70’s, Orange County demand is back on the rise.

End of Steven’s report.

Today, Bank of America announced that it will introduce “principal forgiveness” which will look to reduce loan balances of qualifying distressed homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages or subprime loans in an effort to make their payments more affordable.While smaller banks have already began taking this position, B of A is one of the first large banks to attempt this highly criticized loan modification option.

The Obama administration has been pushing to improve their Home Affordability Modification Program, but rather than push for principal reduction, HAMP was simply extended.  This program has been gaining momentum in the past 4 months.

With more homeowners becoming distressed and considering their limited options, banks currently offer a lengthened term or a change in interest rates, but this move to reduce principal is quite bold. Given B of A’s recent performance, we have to wonder if this is a PR move or if this might actually impact B of A loan holders?

With HAFA ( Improving short sales.) going into effect in less than 2 weeks, it seems that B of A is gearing up to be one of the better banks to work with, instead of one of the worst – which they have been, up to now.

Homeowners defaulting on mortgages today may be surprised to learn years from now that they still owe thousands of dollars—and a collection agency is coming after them to get it.

That’s because lenders have been quietly selling second mortgages and home equity lines left unpaid after foreclosures and short sales. The buyers: collection agencies, which in some states have years to make a claim. If they win court judgments, these collectors could have years to pursue borrowers with repayment plans, and even garnish their wages, said Scott CoBen, a Sacramento bankruptcy attorney.

“The only relief a consumer will have is entering into a debt negotiating plan or filing for bankruptcy,” said Sylvia Alayon, a vice president with the New York-based Consumer Mortgage Audit Center. The firm provides mortgage analysis to lenders, advocacy groups and attorneys.

The phenomenon suggests an ominous, looming echo of today’s real estate meltdown. As debt collectors surely seek at least partial repayment of millions of dollars in unpaid home loans, some say renewed financial stresses on tens of thousands of local consumers could dampen economic recovery.

“I think there will be a lot of unhappy people when it hits,” said CoBen. “We saw this in the ’90s. This is not really new. Just when you think you’re back on your feet, you’re making money and the economy’s good, they hit you with this.”

Alayon said most people are so stressed out and exhausted by trying to save their homes today that they are unaware they could face another hit later. And many who are losing homes don’t get the advice necessary to prevent future fallout, say nonprofit loan counselors.

“You’ve got tens of thousands of people in California who have this hanging over their heads who don’t even know it,” said Scott Thompson, principal at for-profit Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael, Calif. He fears a new wave of bankruptcies might flatten people just starting to recover from losing their homes.

“So many of these are people with 750 or 800 credit scores who made a bad decision,” said Thompson. “Or they’re people who suffered income cuts. These are people, in terms of the economy, whom we need to participate.”

But an entire industry is gearing up to buy their debt at deep discounts and collect what they can, Alayon said. “It’s a big business and investors are coming out of the woodwork. It’s a very lucrative business,” she said. Real estate insiders and financial players know it as “scratch and dent.”

Regionally, no one knows for sure how much unpaid debt is on the line. CoBen said people who used their borrowings for a traditional loan on a house in which they lived generally have little to worry about. But borrowers may be vulnerable in years ahead—generally, those who defaulted not only on their first mortgage but also on a home equity loan or second mortgage.

In California, banks can’t collect from borrowers for primary, so-called “first-lien,” loans that go unpaid. When a house is foreclosed or sold through a short sale, the lender of the first loan gets the house back or the proceeds from another buyer.

But banks also made thousands of “second-lien” loans, including those used to finance 20% down payments during the housing boom. A separate category of “seconds” includes home equity loans and home equity lines of credit. Nationally, about 3.4% of those loans are currently delinquent, according to Foresight.

Owners are generally, but not always, on the hook for the second loans left over from a foreclosure or short sale. Most investor mortgages, too, leave the borrower liable for potential unpaid debt. In many short sales, experienced real estate agents or attorneys can negotiate away debt obligations for the second-lien loan. But many inexperienced borrowers don’t know that, and sign final-hour agreements giving lenders the right to pursue them later.

“Seek advice,” counseled Doug Robinson, spokesman for national nonprofit mortgage counselor NeighborWorks America. He said nonprofit counselors can help. “Often when you work with a real estate agent, they’re not really equipped to handle the repercussions. They’re set up to make the sale,” he said.

Government forces are already moving to limit potential damage to millions now struggling with home loans. A new Obama administration short sale program aims to prevent banks that hold second-lien loans from pursuing collections from homeowners after the short sale. It goes into effect April 5, 2010 and works this way: Sellers will receive notice that their servicer has steered part of the sales proceeds to secondary lien holders “in exchange for release and full satisfaction of their liens.” This release would apply only to short sales done through the administration’s Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program.

In California, Democratic state Sen. Ellen Corbett recently introduced SB 1178, which would expand California’s protections for some people who refinance and take on a second mortgage.

People who refinance, but use the funds to improve their homes or to stay in their homes with a better interest rate, would be protected. Lenders could not seek court judgments to collect from these borrowers in the event of foreclosure or short sales.

“If you refinance a property and aren’t using the money for personal reasons, you shouldn’t lose your personal protections,” said California Association of Realtors lobbyist Alex Creel. He said the idea has been around for years but has become more urgent as thousands lose income and fall into mortgage trouble. The bill would apply to all foreclosures or short sales that occur after it becomes law. It doesn’t matter when the loan was made, Creel said. SB 1178 is still in the early stages of consideration. It must clear both houses of the Legislature and be signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger by Sept. 30 in order to take effect.

(c) 2010, The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento, Calif.). Hat tip to Valerie Fitzgerald.

CNNMoney.com recently published its 2010 forecast and projections for home prices in the country's largest metro markets. 

Listed as "Top 25" and also comprehensively by state, CNNMoney.com's home price forecasts puts Santa Rosa, California at the top of 2010's home appreciation list and Hanford, California at its bottom.

The 10 cities projected for highest home appreciation in 2010 are:

1. Santa Rosa, CA : +6.0%
2. Cheyenne, WY : +4.7%
3. Kennewick, WA : +4.6%
4. Merced, CA : +4.4%
5. Bremerton, WA : +4.2%
6. Fairbanks, AK : +4.2%
7. Corvallis, OR : +4.1%
8. Tacoma, WA : +3.9%
9. Anchorage, AK : +3.8%
10. Bend, OR : +3.3%

The Pacific Northwest is the region most heavily-represented among price gainers. The Southeast and Middle Atlantic are most represented on the under-perform list.

However, just because a city's homes are expected to appreciate (or depreciate) in 2010, that doesn't mean that every home within its limits will follow suit.  Real estate cannot be grouped on a city level like CNNMoney.com tries to. There will always be areas in demand within city limits in which prices rise, just as there will be out-of-demand areas in which prices fall.

Real estate data can't be grouped by city or even by ZIP code, really.

Real estate is more local than that.

When we say "real estate is local",  it means that every street in every town has a distinct set of traits that drives its home values. Homes that are one block closer to the train; or, homes that are facing north; or, homes that are made of brick. Each of these characteristics can affect a home's desirability which, in turn, can affects its sales price.

National surveys can't capture "essence" like this. They only report on the aggregate.

For local real estate data, look to established, publicly available websites and to active, local real estate agents.  Both will have data and insight that can help you.  National surveys often make for good headlines, but do little to help homebuyers find good value.

Mortgage markets closed unchanged last week, but that's not say mortgage rates were calm. Monday through Wednesday, rates improved steadily before a swift, late-week sell-off unwound the gains.

Mortgage rates have been very low for a very long time -- against the expectations of most market experts.  The speed of the Thursday-Friday reversal may signal that markets are preparing for change.

One key story from last week was the Federal Open Market Committee's scheduled Tuesday meeting. Upon adjournment, the Fed voted 9-1 to hold the Fed Funds rate in its current target range near 0.000% and reiterated its plan to keep rates low for "an extended period of time". 

Kansas Fed President Thomas Hoenig was the lone dissenting vote.

For rate shoppers , take note. 

The Fed specifically mentioned that the its $1.25 trillion mortgage buyback program will end, as planned, March 31, 2010.  This could force rates higher over the next two weeks because, according to the Fed, the existence of a buyback program forced rates lower by 1 percentage point in 2009.

When the program ends, it's expected that markets will give back some of that 1 percent, leading to higher mortgage rates for conventional and FHA borrowers.

This week, in addition to the buyback program's looming end-date, there's several other potential influences on mortgage rates:

1. The Existing Home Sales data for February is released Tuesday, along with the Home Price Index
2. The New Home Sales data for February is released Wednesday
3. Consumer Confidence data hits Friday

Strength in any -- or all three -- of these reports should put pressure on mortgage rates to rise.

But there's one wildcard this week and that's the aforementioned Kansas Fed President Hoenig's scheduled speech Wednesday morning. Typically, Fed members stay on message when making public appearances, but Hoenig is expected to talk about why rates should be higher, and what the Fed needs to do to prepare the economy for late-2010 and beyond.

His words could lead Wall Street to rethink its position on the mortgage bond market and that could cause rates to spike Wednesday afternoon.

Mortgage rates remain volatile and are still relatively low. If you're unsure of whether now is a good time to lock in, consider that there's a lot more room for rates to rise than to fall right now. Especially with momentum shifting for the worse.

Homes are more affordable across the nation as the housing market emerges from a slow winter season with mortgage rates still near 5 percent.

Soft housing and low rates are an excellent combination for home buyers but whereas home values rise with a gradual pace, mortgage rates change in an instant.  It's something worth watching.

Each 0.25% increase to conventional or FHA rates adds approximately $16 per month for each $100,000 borrowed. Mortgage rate volatility can change your household budget.

If you're trying to gauge whether rates will be rising or falling, one keyword for which to listen is "inflation". Mortgage rates are highly responsive to inflation.

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $2.00 now costs $2.15. As consumers, we perceive inflation as goods becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive, per se. It's that the dollars used to buy them are worth less.

This is a big deal to mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars.  As the dollar loses value to inflation, therefore, so does the value of every mortgage bond in existence. When bonds lose their value, investors don't want them and bond prices fall.  Mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices.

Prices down, rates up.

In today's market, the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is helping home buyers. The Cost of Living made its smallest annual gain in 6 years last month and the Fed has repeatedly said that inflation will stay low for some time. The combination is driving investors to buy mortgage bonds which, in turn, suppresses rates.

So long as it lasts, the cost of homeownership will remain relatively low. Combined with the expiring tax credit, the timing to buy a home may be as good as it gets.

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Wednesday, March 17th, 2010, 9:51 am, from HousingWire.com

 

HOPE NOW, an alliance between mortgage service professionals and non-profit counselors, reported 99,499 modifications in January, compared to 50,364 new permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).

January HOPE NOW modification numbers dropped only slightly from 104,423 non-HAMP modifications in December, compared to roughly 35,000 permanent modifications under HAMP in that same month.

The US Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. Through February 2010, the 113 participating servicers provided 170,000 permanent modifications.

HOPE NOW reported 74% of its January modifications involved interest and principal reductions, equaling more than 73,000 loans. According to the HOPE NOW statement, the fact that non-HAMP workouts outnumbered HAMP modifications two to one is proof that the industry is exploring a wide range of solutions to keep borrowers in their homes.

“While Treasury and other government sponsored programs have garnered much attention, much of the servicers’ hard work has gone unnoticed. Our new data set is proof that the industry continues to aggressively find solutions for borrowers facing default,” said Faith Schwartz, executive director of HOPE NOW.

Since 2008, 2,600,000 borrowers received modifications from the HOPE NOW alliance.( End of HousingWire.com article.)

Meanwhile, doom & gloom bubble bloggers continue to spew their misinformation that such programs are dismal failures. Perhaps if they brought their information up to date, they would gain a little credibility.  They continue to spout figures from almost a year ago, when in fact, there were almost no loan modification programs at all, 12 months ago.  Here’s a twist on an old saying:  “If it sounds too negative to be possible, it probably isn’t – either true, or possible.

Both loan modifications and short sales are gaining more traction every day.  In two and a half weeks, when HAFA hits the ground running, things will only get even better.

Friday, March 12th, 2010, 1:01 pm  -  From HousingWire.com

A year into the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), servicers converted 170,207 permanent modifications through February, up from 116,297 in January, according to the US Treasury Department.

The Treasury launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide capped incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. To address critics that claim HAMP isn’t having the effect of reaching its target 3m to 4m borrowers, a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in February began an investigation of HAMP on concerns of the “effectiveness and efficiency” of the program.

According to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) transaction report, the 113 participating servicers under HAMP can earn a total cap of $36.9bn. The Treasury has slated $75bn for the program. Borrowers in HAMP received a median savings of $518 a month, or 36% of the payment before the modification.

More than 91,843 active trial modifications need only a borrower signature to become permanent, totaling more than 260,00 permanent modifications approved by servicers. More than 835,000 three-month trial modifications began through February. Active modifications – both trials and permanent modifications – totaled more than 1m.

Wells Fargo (WFC: 30.28 0.00%) completed 24,975 permanent modifications, leading all servicers again. Wells had 17,652 permanent modifications in January. In February, Wells had active modifications on 37% of its 379,357 HAMP-eligible loans, up from 38% in January.

Bank of America (BAC: 17.03 0.00%) provided 20,666 permanent modifications through February, the second-highest volume of all servicers and an increase from 12,761 in January. In November, BofA had 98 permanent modifications. BofA has active modifications on 24% of the more than 1m mortgages in its HAMP-eligible portfolio in February, up from 22% in January.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 43.24 0.00%) had the third most permanent modifications at 19,385 through February, up from 11,581 in January. In February, JPM had active modifications on 39% of the 437,323 loans in its HAMP-eligible portfolio, up from 38% in January.

CitiMortgage, a subsidiary of Citigroup (C: 4.05 0.00%), provided 15,607 permanent modifications through February, taking its place as the fourth-largest servicer in terms of volume, up from 10,929 in January when it ranked fifth. It has 52% of its 249,901 HAMP-eligible loans in active modifications.

GMAC provided 14,675 permanent modifications, dropping to the fifth highest of any servicer, from January when it was the fourth-highest with 11,494 permanent modifications. GMAC has 66,289 loans in its HAMP-eligible portfolio and started active modifications on 53% of them, the highest of any servicer and up from 50% in January.

To qualify for HAMP, a mortgage must have a current unpaid principal balance of less than $729,750 be occupied by the owner and originated prior to Jan. 1, 2009. Qualifying borrowers must be employed. More than 57% of the borrowers who received permanent modifications claimed a loss of income as the predominant reason for hardship, the same percentage in January. More than 10% claimed excessive obligation, and 2% claimed illness of the principal borrower.

Despite the increases in permanent modifications from 31,382 in November, when the Treasury began reporting that statistic, officials admit the program is not for every borrower. Seth Wheeler, senior adviser to the Treasury when speaking at the American Securitization Forum (ASF) in Washington, DC, said the Treasury is adjusting its focus away from modifications as HAMP is not always the best solution.

A new program, the Home Affordable Foreclosures Alternatives (HAFA), will provide incentives to servicers to provide short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure. HAFA launches in April 5, 2010 as lenders and officials buffer against potential fraud cases. ( End of article.)

ALL the lenders above, and most of the Country's larger lenders are gearing up to implement the new HAFA program, mentioned above, which promises to provide improvements in short sales, in both speed to process, and in the number of short sales that become successful.

If YOU have a mortgage hardship now, or one on the horizon, NOW is a great time to seek assistance.  For more information on either a loan modification or a short sale, just give me a call, or shoot me an email.

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 1-day meeting today, its second of the year. 

The FOMC has held the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent since December 16, 2008, and the voting members of the Fed are expected to vote "no change" again today.

However, no change in the Fed Funds Rate doesn't necessarily mean no change in mortgage rates.  This is because the Fed Funds Rate is a different interest rate from the rates home buyers get from a loan officer. 

• Fed Funds Rate : Short-term rate at which banks borrow from each other
• Mortgage Rate : Long-term rate of interest a homeowner pays on a mortgage

Mortgage rates are more responsive to what the Fed says as compared to what the Fed does. 

After each FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co issue a formal press release to the markets.  At roughly 400 words, the statement is a brief commentary on the strengths, weaknesses, and threats for the U.S. economy.

Wall Street watches the statement with great interest and this is why mortgage rates are often volatile on the days of an FOMC adjournment. One mention of a word like "inflation" and traders rush to dump their mortgage bond positions.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

After the Fed’s last meeting in January, it told us that the economy had "weakened further", led by steep declines both in housing and employment. Global demand was off, too.  The negative tone of the Fed's statement caused mortgage rates to fall to near an all-time low.

This month, expect a less gloomy message.

Since January, there's been a modest rebound in housing, employment appears more stable, and Retail Sales just posted huge gains.  If the Fed alludes to improvement in any or all three, mortgage rates will likely reverse and zoom higher.

We can’t know what the Fed today will say so if you're floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe approach would be to do it today, prior to 2:15 PM ET.

Mortgage markets worsened last week with little economic news to push markets in either direction. Momentum trading and rebalancing of portfolios drove mortgage rates higher, on average.

FHA and conventional mortgage rates rose last week, marking the first time that's happened this month. 

Mortgage rates have been on impressive run lately and mortgages are priced far better than what most experts predicted.  Weaker-than-expected economic data is one reason why.  Lack of economic data may be another.

This week, however, data returns.

• Monday : Industrial Production and Home Builder Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday: Consumer Confidence
• Thursday : Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday : Consumer Price Index and Continuing Jobless Claims

And, as if all that weren't enough to spook you, the Federal Open Market Committee meets for a scheduled, 1-day event Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is expected to vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range near 0.000%, but that doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change. Markets are responsive to the FOMC's post-meeting press release and any clear talk of economic strengthening should drive rates higher.

Wall Street is in Wait-and-See Mode and this week will give it plenty to look at.

If you're floating a mortgage rate, or waiting to lock, be prepared for wild swings in mortgage rates -- especially leading up to Tuesday afternoon's FOMC adjournment. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM.